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Just read  a July 8th article from Knowledge@Wharton: Caught in the Middle: Rising Unemployment Takes Its Toll on Older Managers that will cause you to lose some sleep. Especially if you are believing the hype that “it is getting better out there.”

It isn’t.

And it won’t.

The opening paragraph sets the pace:

U.S. recessions since the oil crisis in the early 1970s each had their own special causes and victims, but they also had something in common: They were over relatively quickly. The current downturn, however, is deeper and already longer than any since World War II. This spells trouble for one especially vulnerable group — managers in their 40s and early 50s. They tend to be more expensive than their younger counterparts; they may lack some of the high-tech savvy needed to succeed in a more efficient workplace; and they face a downsized job market that will stay that way much longer than usual.

Peter Capelli, HR Guru, continues the bleak picture for older, middle managers. In the past, there was always something happening to offset and absorb these people. The last time around, there were a zillion startups. This time – not so much.

More bad news:

A survey in June by Watson Wyatt Worldwide reports that 52% of companies will employ fewer people than they did before the recession began. One third of the 179 U.S.-based companies polled indicated they still anticipate further layoffs…

And here is the killing blow and the stat that should make EVERYONE sit up and take notice according to the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• 14.7 million people were unemployed (9.5%) as of June 2009 compared 8.7 million (5.6%) one year ago.

• The number of long-term unemployed — people without work for 27 weeks or more — increased from 1,621,000 in June 2008 to 4,381,000 in June 2009.

• Meanwhile, approximately 6.5 million jobs have been lost since the recession started 19 months ago.

• And the “underemployment” rate — which includes those too discouraged to look for work as well as those working part-time because they can’t find a fulltime job — increased to a staggering 16.5% in June compared to 10.1% a year earlier.

I think we all need to pause and digest these numbers. Especially the long term unemployed number and the length of this DEPRESSION. (There, I said it.) Unemployment Insurance is paying through 12 months (correct me if I am wrong). If the recession is 19 months old, there are a WHOLE BUNCH of people not showing up in these numbers.

Millions.

Older people, myself included, you’re old and your skills are out-dated. Someone younger, LESS EXPENSIVE, and with better, more current skills is going to get the job you want.

The article talks about people that have been out of work more than 9 months that are just now finding work. The article cautions that you should expect a 15% – 30% salary cut. And that 60% of the jobs will NOT be posted anywhere. You MUST NETWORK!

Be prepared for a total shift in how you view “work”.

Stewart Friedman, a Wharton management professor, “sees project-based employment as part of a larger structural change in the way people look for, and find, work. ‘It’s about switching from an organization-based economy to a network-based one,’ which he describes as ‘the movement to employment that can be done on a contract basis where you are part of a labor pool that is organized, not by firm, but by networks.’

Network, network, network. Get in the game.